Roofing Price Report
Nov 2025 – Apr 2026

Key Takeaways

1. Asphalt Shingle Pricing — What's Really Changed

The cleanest measure of shingle pricing isn't a contractor's quote or a homeowner survey — it's the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Producer Price Index for asphalt shingle manufacturing, series PCU3241223241222. That index sets an objective baseline because it's measured at the factory gate, not at the retail level. The index hit an all-time high of 370.0 in August 2025 and remained near that level through February 2026 at 360.6. Translation: factory prices are up roughly 3.6× vs. the 2007 baseline, and the modest pullback from the August peak does not survive the spring 2026 price-increase letters from every major manufacturer.

What it means for homeowners: if you got a quote in late 2025 and let it sit, it is now stale. Materials alone on a typical 28-square (2,800 sqft) job have climbed roughly $300–$700 since fall 2025, before any contractor markup adjustment.

2. Labor Rates — The Bigger Story

Materials get the headlines, but labor is the larger and faster-rising line item on a typical PA shingle job. Labor now accounts for roughly 40–60% of total roof replacement cost nationally and the higher end of that range in markets where contractors must compete against new-construction wage levels. In Pennsylvania, finished-roof labor runs $2.00–$4.50 per square foot, or $150–$300 per roofing square (100 sqft).

The structural problem behind those numbers is well-documented. The Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) projects a net new-worker gap of 349,000 in 2026, with some forecasts running closer to 499,000. The Home Builders Institute (HBI) Fall 2025 report notes that immigrants make up 60%+ of the workforce in roofing, drywall, and plastering specifically — meaning immigration policy changes translate almost directly into installer availability.

The retirement wave is the slow-moving force homeowners should pay attention to. Roughly 40% of the construction workforce is over 45, and replacements are not entering the trade fast enough. That single dynamic puts a floor under labor pricing for the next several years — even in a soft demand environment.

3. Tariffs and Material Inputs

The 2026 cost story is not driven by raw shingle asphalt alone — it is driven by the metal accessories that finish a roof and the petrochemicals that go into the shingle mat. Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs doubled to 50% in mid-2025 and remain in effect. The Commerce Department has expanded coverage to over 400 derivative product categories, meaning flashing, drip edge, gutters, and fasteners all sit inside the 50% tariff envelope. Homeowners do not see those line items broken out, but they show up in the bid total.

What it means: the tariff structure is the part of 2026 pricing that won't be solved by waiting. Manufacturer price letters move 4–8% per cycle; tariffs move 50% in one rule change. As long as Section 232 stays at 50% on derivative metal products, the floor under installed pricing stays elevated.

4. Demand and Manufacturer Health

Counter-intuitively, U.S. asphalt shingle demand is down sharply while prices are rising. ARMA's Q1 2026 report shows shipments at 38.1 million squares — a 9.9% year-over-year decline driven by mild winter storm activity, soft new-construction starts, and homeowners deferring discretionary work. Owens Corning's Q4 2025 earnings call confirmed the trend: roofing segment revenue fell 27% YoY to $774M, with management guiding to another low-20% revenue decline in Q1 2026 and roughly $30M in production curtailment costs.

Why are prices still rising in a soft market? Because input costs (tariffs, petrochemicals, labor) are rising faster than demand is falling. Manufacturers are choosing to defend margins through price increases and production curtailments rather than chasing volume. Owens Corning specifically expects demand to recover to historical averages across full-year 2026, which removes the strongest downward-pricing scenario from the table.

5. Pennsylvania & Mid-Atlantic Pricing Reality

National averages are useful for context but homeowners pay regional prices. For South-Central PA — York County, Adams County, Lancaster County — the picture is moderately better than coastal or major-metro markets. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metros run 8–12% higher than rural Central PA on equivalent jobs because of higher labor rates, dumping fees, and permit complexity. York County typically benchmarks at the lower end of the PA range.

For a typical York County 28-square architectural shingle replacement (~2,800 sqft, single-story or moderate-pitch), installed pricing in April 2026 lands roughly $13,500–$15,500, up from approximately $12,000–$13,500 a year earlier. Steeper pitches, multi-story homes, complex valleys/dormers, and full tear-off-to-deck repairs push that range higher. If you'd like a written, line-itemized estimate for your home, our team offers free roof inspections in York PA.

6. Insurance Claim Trends — What PA Homeowners Should Know

Insurance has quietly become a meaningful cost-shifter in residential roofing. Pennsylvania's Unfair Claims Settlement Practices Act (UCSPA) sets concrete timelines: insurers have 10 working days to acknowledge a claim, 30 days to investigate, and 15 days to accept or deny once proof of loss is submitted. Most insurers require proof of loss within 60 days of the date of damage. In 2026, carriers are tightening documentation expectations: AI-assisted desk adjusting and drone imagery are now the default for storm claims, which speeds approvals when documentation is clean and slows them when it isn't.

Filing a single weather-related claim does not automatically raise an individual homeowner's premium in PA, but widespread regional claim activity (such as the 2024 derecho events) can drive area-wide base-rate increases at renewal. The actuarial assumptions for 2026–2027 PA homeowners' policies bake in higher repair-cost inflation, which is a separate line item from claims experience.

7. 6-Month Forecast: May–Oct 2026

This is the heart of the report. The forecast synthesizes BLS PPI, ARMA shipment data, NRCA monthly material price coverage, AGC labor projections, and Owens Corning's Q4 2025 guidance.

Where the forecast could be wrong

• Downside (lower prices): a sudden Section 232 tariff rollback (low probability) or a recession-driven collapse in residential starts that forces manufacturer destocking. Either could compress the range to flat or slightly down.
• Upside (higher prices): a major Q3 storm event in the Mid-Atlantic that draws installer capacity to insurance work and pushes retail prices up 5–10% above the base forecast on local availability alone.

8. What Mid-Atlantic Homeowners Should Actually Do

Three practical decisions this report supports:

Cool Water Roofing has been installing shingle roofs across York County, Hanover, and Spring Grove since 2007. If you'd like a free, written estimate that reflects current April 2026 pricing — not a stale 2025 figure — you can contact us here or call (717) 823-6501. We'll walk you through your material options, explain what the underlayment system should include, and tell you honestly whether a repair or replacement is the better call.

Summary — 16 Highest-Impact Stats

Methodology and Sources

Methodology: Pricing data was sourced primarily from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Producer Price Index series (FRED), the Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association (ARMA) Q1 2026 Shipment Report, the National Roofing Contractors Association (NRCA) monthly material price reporting, Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) labor projections, the Home Builders Institute Fall 2025 Labor Market Report, and Owens Corning's Q4 2025 earnings disclosures. Manufacturer price-increase letters were verified through major roofing supply distributors (SRS Distribution, Cameron Ashley, Carolina Atlantic). Pennsylvania-specific cost data was triangulated across Modernize, Equity Roofs Central PA Guide, and RoofVista. Stats were excluded if they could not be traced to a Tier-1 (BLS, ARMA, NRCA, manufacturer earnings, AGC) or reputable Tier-2 source. Cool Water Roofing's own field data is referenced only contextually and is excluded from all numeric stats per methodology.

Sources:

• FRED / BLS — PPI Asphalt Shingle and Coating Materials Manufacturing (PCU3241223241222)
• ARMA — Q1 2026 Asphalt Roofing Product Shipment Report
• Roofing Contractor — Asphalt Shingle Demand Falls 9.9% in Q1 as Costs Surge
• NRCA — Construction Material Prices Climbed in February (Mar 19 2026)
• Owens Corning — Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results Press Release
• Owens Corning — Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript (Feb 25 2026)
• National Manufacturer Price Increase Letter Roundup, Q1 2026
• Cameron Ashley Building Products — Manufacturer Price Notices
• Roofing Contractor — Roofing Faces Rising Costs Amid New Tariff Policies
• FoxHaven Roofing — Tariff Impact on Roofing Costs 2026
• Construction Dive — ABC 2026 Construction Labor Demand Report
• HBI — Fall 2025 Construction Labor Market Report
• HomeGuide — Roofing Labor Cost Per Square 2026
• Equity Roofs — Roof Cost in Central PA 2026 Homeowner Guide
• Modernize — PA Roof Replacement Cost Calculator
• RoofVista — PA Roof Replacement Cost Pricing Guide
• Opus Roofing — Asphalt Shingle Prices 2026 Market Update
• Roofing Contractor — Construction Costs Rise Fastest Since Early 2023

Last updated: April 2026. Update cadence: We update this report every 6 months. Next update: October 2026.