Roofing Price Report
May 2026 – Oct 2026

Key Takeaways

How Our April Forecast Held Up

In April we called for materials to rise 3–6% by October, labor to rise 3–5%, and total installed cost to rise 3–6%. Here is the scorecard against the cleanest available measures.

Caveat on the total-job line: the two Central PA cost guides we rely on both revised their baselines between editions, so the jump in published per-square-foot floors overstates true six-month inflation. The PPI, measured at the factory gate with a fixed methodology, is the better gauge of what actually moved: roughly 5% on materials. We missed the timing of the June letters, and we say so.

1. Asphalt Shingle Pricing — A Record, Then a Pause

The BLS Producer Price Index for asphalt shingle manufacturing (series PCU3241223241222, June 1984 = 100) is the objective baseline because it measures factory-gate prices, not contractor quotes. The June 1 manufacturer increases show up clearly: the index jumped 3.6% in a single month (May 362.33 to June 375.52), kept climbing to a record 381.95 in August, then eased 2.0% in September to 374.28. Note that BLS revised last year's figures since our April edition; the August 2025 reading now stands at 367.81, not 370.0, so the August 2026 record clears the old peak by 3.8%.

The September pullback is the first meaningful give-back since the June letters, and it lines up with the 13% collapse in Q3 shipments. Manufacturers list a price; distributors with heavy inventory and weak sell-through discount it. That does not mean a quote in York County got cheaper, but it does mean the pressure to push list prices higher has stalled for now.

What it means for homeowners: 2026 now carries two stacked manufacturer increases, roughly 5–8% in April and 6–10% in June. A quote written before June 1 is stale by the full second round. On a 28-square architectural job, the Owens Corning per-square figures alone translate to about $225 more in shingles plus accessory increases, before any distributor or contractor margin adjustment. GAF's letter attributed the increase to raw material and transportation costs, which is consistent with the asphalt and diesel data in Section 3.

2. Labor Rates — Still Rising, But Slower

Labor is the larger line item on a Pennsylvania shingle job and the one that never gives ground. BLS average hourly earnings for all construction employees reached $41.69 in September 2026, up 4.2% from a year earlier and up 1.7% since April. The slowdown from the pace we saw in the spring is real: with builder confidence at a 14-year low and shingle shipments down 13%, crews are easier to book than they were in 2024–2025, and the wage premium for pulling an installer off another job has shrunk.

Two counter-forces keep the floor firm. First, the Construction Labor Research Council reports first-year union settlements averaging 4.9% across construction crafts in 2026 (roofers specifically at 3.4%, down from 4.1% in 2025). Second, the September 2026 AGC/NCCER workforce survey found 29% of construction firms reported a direct or indirect effect from immigration enforcement in the prior six months, with Southern contractors hit hardest. Roofing is more exposed than most trades: the Fall 2025 HBI report put the immigrant share of the roofing, drywall, and plastering workforce above 60%. HBI has not published a 2026 edition as of this writing.

The takeaway: labor inflation has downshifted from the 9% residential wage spikes of mid-2025 to a 3–4% trend, and we expect it to stay there while demand is this weak. It is not going to fall. ABC still projects a 456,000-worker gap for 2027 driven mostly by retirements, and the Beige Book districts covering Philadelphia and New York both reported construction wages rising faster than wages overall through early October.

3. Tariffs, Oil, and the Inputs Under the Shingle

The second-half story is less about the tariffs themselves and more about oil. Asphalt shingles are roughly a third asphalt by weight, and liquid asphalt is a crude-oil byproduct. The BLS asphalt commodity PPI (WPU058102) jumped from 212.44 in March to 282.24 in April as Middle East supply disruptions hit, peaked at 326.55 in July, and stood at 291.46 in September, up 17.1% year-over-year. Diesel, which moves every bundle from plant to distributor to driveway, is up 115.2% over the same period. Those two numbers explain GAF's "raw material and transportation" language in the June letter better than anything else.

On metals, the April 2 presidential proclamation (effective April 6) restructured Section 232: the 50% rate now applies to the full customs value of steel and aluminum articles and listed derivatives, not just the metal content, with a 25% tier for other derivatives and a reduced 10% rate for products made entirely from U.S.-melted metal. Some low-metal-content items were removed from scope. For a roof, that means drip edge, step flashing, pipe boots, ridge vent nails, and gutters all sit inside the 50% envelope, and the PPIs confirm it: steel mill products up 27.6% YoY, aluminum mill shapes up 24.1%.

What it means: the April edition said tariffs would not be solved by waiting, and that held. The new wrinkle is that oil-linked inputs are the swing factor for spring 2027. If asphalt and diesel retreat, manufacturers lose their stated justification for a third round. If they stay here, a February or March 2027 letter is close to certain. Watch the asphalt PPI, not the headlines.

4. Demand Falls Off a Cliff, Manufacturers Hold Price

Q2 looked fine on the surface. ARMA reported U.S. shingle shipments of 44.84 million squares, up 0.2% year-over-year, and Owens Corning posted roofing sales of $1,313 million, up 1%, at a 34% EBITDA margin. But the Q2 number was inflated by distributors buying ahead of the June 1 increase, and the company said so on its August 5 call: industry shipments were expected to fall high-single digits in Q3 because volume had been pulled forward, and asphalt and transportation inflation would push price/cost negative despite "solid realization" on the increases.

Q3 came in worse than that guide. ARMA's third-quarter report, covered by Roofing Contractor on October 26, shows U.S. shingle shipments of 35.16 million squares, down 13.0% from 40.39 million a year earlier. Year-to-date through September is down 7.3%. Commercial product went the other way, with modified bitumen up 17%, so the weakness is specifically residential steep-slope. The reasons are not mysterious: the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped to 29 in October, the lowest since June 2012; 43% of builders cut prices; and Freddie Mac's 30-year rate was 7.32% on October 22 versus 6.19% a year earlier. Harvard's Joint Center projected remodeling spending growth slowing to 0.5% by Q1 2027. Owens Corning reports Q3 on November 4, after this edition.

Why did prices rise into a 13% volume drop? Because the manufacturers' input costs rose faster than their volume fell, and the industry is concentrated enough to defend price through curtailment rather than discounting. The September PPI dip is the first sign that discipline is being tested. The honest read for homeowners: list prices are not coming down, but the room to negotiate at the distributor and contractor level is the best it has been in two years.

5. Pennsylvania & Mid-Atlantic Pricing Reality

The two Central PA cost guides we track both updated in the reporting period, and both moved their floors up. Modernize's Pennsylvania calculator (updated August 27, 2026) now puts the Harrisburg and Central PA installed range for architectural shingles at $5.75–$8.75 per square foot, with a statewide average of $15,200 on a 2,000-square-foot roof. Equity Roofs' Central PA guide (updated May 29, 2026) moved its shingle range to $5.80–$8.20 per square foot, from $4.80 at the low end in our April edition. The metro premium persists: Philadelphia runs $6.75–$10.25 and Pittsburgh $6.25–$9.75 on the Modernize data.

Methodology flag: Modernize's statewide average rose from about $12,506 to $15,200 between our editions, a 21.5% jump that no index supports. The site changed its roof-size and product assumptions. Treat the current ranges as the new baseline, not as evidence of 20% inflation. RoofVista's PA guide ($5.30–$7.42 per square foot for architectural) was published March 20, 2026 and has not been refreshed, so we flag it as older than six months and weight it lightly.

For a straightforward York County 28-square architectural shingle replacement (about 2,800 square feet, single-story or moderate pitch), the lower-to-middle band of the two current Central PA guides works out to roughly $16,000–$18,500 installed in October 2026. Steep pitches, multi-story homes, complex valleys and dormers, or deck replacement push a 28-square job above $20,000. That is a synthesized figure from third-party per-square-foot data, not our pricing. For a number on your specific home, our instant roof estimate tool measures your roof from satellite imagery in about 30 seconds, and we offer a free roof inspection in York PA that ends in a real quote.

6. Insurance Claims — Severity Up, Frequency Down

The 2026 LexisNexis U.S. Home Trends Report, released July 22, is the clearest national picture of what carriers are pricing into 2027 renewals. All-peril claim severity rose 25.9% from 2024 to 2025 and is now 93.2% above 2019, while frequency fell 23.8%. Wind was a quiet year: wind loss cost fell 50.4% and wind claim frequency fell 43.9%, largely because 2025 had fewer catastrophe wind events than the Helene-and-Milton year before it. Hail loss cost was 38.4% below its 2023 peak.

For Pennsylvania homeowners, the severity number is the one that matters. Carriers are paying fewer roof claims but paying far more per claim, which is why documentation standards keep tightening and why a filed claim now carries a measurable premium cost. MoneyGeek's August 2026 Pennsylvania analysis puts the surcharge at about $350 per year for one claim and $644 for two, and claims stay on your record for five years. On rates, Insurify's March 2026 projection called for Pennsylvania premiums to rise only 2% in 2026 (to about $1,710), well below the 4% national projection, after a 12% national jump in 2025. That projection is now seven months old and predates the 2026 storm season, so we flag it. Pennsylvania's Unfair Claims Settlement Practices Act timelines are unchanged from our April edition: 10 working days to acknowledge, 30 days to investigate, 15 days to decide once proof of loss is in.

One practical note: a roof that is simply old is not a claim, and carriers in 2026 are quicker to deny wear-and-tear losses than they were five years ago. If you believe you have storm damage, document it the same week and file promptly. Our guide to storm insurance and roof damage in York County walks through the process.

7. 6-Month Forecast: Nov 2026 – Apr 2027

The forecast synthesizes the BLS PPI series, ARMA shipment data, Owens Corning's Q3 guidance, the manufacturer letter cadence, ABC and AGC input-cost reporting, and NAHB demand indicators. The dominant tension is unchanged from April, but the balance has shifted: input costs still argue for higher prices, and demand now argues loudly against them.

Where the forecast could be wrong

• Downside (lower prices): a resolution of the Middle East supply disruption that drops crude, liquid asphalt, and diesel sharply would remove the manufacturers' stated justification for a spring letter and could turn materials slightly negative. A deeper housing slump that forces manufacturer destocking and promotional pricing would compound it.
• Upside (higher prices): a spring 2027 letter announced early (January) and effective March would land inside this window and push materials to the top of the range or above it. Further Section 232 expansions on derivative products would add to accessory costs. A major spring storm event in the Mid-Atlantic would tighten installer availability and lift local pricing 5–10% on capacity alone.
• Data risk: Owens Corning reports Q3 on November 4 and ARMA's Q4 figures arrive in late January. Either could show the demand drop is steeper than the 13% Q3 print, which would shift our materials call toward flat or down.

8. What Mid-Atlantic Homeowners Should Actually Do

Six decisions this report supports:

Cool Water Roofing has installed shingle roofs across York County, Hanover, and Spring Grove since 2007. If you want a quote that reflects October 2026 pricing rather than a spring number, you can contact us here or call (717) 823-6501. Our asphalt shingle roof guide for York PA explains what an installation system should include, our roof replacement page covers the process, and we will tell you honestly whether a repair buys you a few more years.

Summary — 18 Highest-Impact Stats

Methodology and Sources

Methodology: Pricing data was sourced primarily from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index series retrieved through FRED (asphalt shingle manufacturing, liquid asphalt, diesel fuel, steel mill products, aluminum mill shapes, construction average hourly earnings), the Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association (ARMA) Q2 and Q3 2026 Quarterly Product Shipment Reports as covered by Roofing Contractor, Owens Corning's Q2 2026 earnings release, 10-Q, and call, Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) and Associated General Contractors (AGC) monthly input-price analysis, the Construction Labor Research Council settlement data, the AGC/NCCER September 2026 workforce survey, NAHB's October 2026 Housing Market Index, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Harvard JCHS's Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, and the LexisNexis 2026 U.S. Home Trends Report. Manufacturer price increases were verified against the manufacturers' own letters as published by ABC Supply and Gulfeagle Supply, not against secondary summaries. Year-over-year and period changes labeled "calculated" were computed by us from the FRED monthly values. Pennsylvania cost data was triangulated across Modernize, Equity Roofs, and RoofVista; any source older than six months is flagged inline. Stats were dropped if they could not be traced to a Tier-1 (BLS, ARMA, manufacturer earnings and letters, AGC, ABC, NAHB, Freddie Mac) or reputable Tier-2 source. Cool Water Roofing's own field data is referenced only contextually and is excluded from all numeric stats.

Sources:

• FRED / BLS — PPI Asphalt Shingle and Coating Materials Manufacturing (PCU3241223241222)
• FRED / BLS — PPI Commodity: Asphalt (WPU058102)
• FRED / BLS — PPI Commodity: #2 Diesel Fuel (WPU057303)
• FRED / BLS — PPI Commodity: Steel Mill Products (WPU1017)
• FRED / BLS — PPI Commodity: Aluminum Mill Shapes (WPU1025)
• FRED / BLS — Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Construction (CES2000000003)
• ARMA — 2026 Q2 Report on Asphalt Roofing Product Shipments (Jul 22 2026)
• Roofing Contractor — U.S. Shingle Shipments Edge Up as Canada Falls 20.8% (ARMA Q2 2026)
• Roofing Contractor — U.S. Shingle Shipments Fall 13% in Third Quarter (ARMA Q3 2026, Oct 26 2026)
• Owens Corning — Second Quarter 2026 Results Press Release (Aug 5 2026)
• Owens Corning — Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026
• Owens Corning — Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (Aug 5 2026)
• GAF — National Price Increase Bulletin PCD2226 (Apr 23 2026, effective Jun 1 2026)
• CertainTeed — US Residential Roofing Products Price Increase (Apr 23 2026, effective Jun 1 2026)
• Owens Corning — Roofing Price Increase Amounts (Apr 30 2026, effective Jun 1 2026)
• IKO — Residential Roofing Price Increase Notice (Apr 27 2026, effective Jun 1 2026)
• TAMKO — Price Increase Bulletin (Apr 27 2026, effective Jun 8 2026)
• Atlas Roofing — Price Increase Announcement (Apr 14 2026, effective May 18 2026)
• ABC Supply — Steep Slope Roofing Manufacturer Price Increase Announcements (index)
• Gulfeagle Supply — Price Increase Notice Effective June 1 2026
• EY Global Tax Alert — Presidential Proclamation Modifies Section 232 Tariffs (Apr 3 2026)
• ABC — Construction Materials Prices Jump 2.2% in September, Up 11.2% Year Over Year (Oct 15 2026)
• Building Design+Construction — ABC September 2026 Input Price Analysis
• AGC — Data DIGest Vol. 26 No. 39 (Oct 12–16 2026)
• AGC — Construction Input Costs Jump 11.9% (Oct 15 2026)
• AGC — Construction Employment and Hourly Earnings Table, September 2026
• NCCER — ABC: Construction Needs 349K New Workers in 2026 (Jan 2026)
• Roofing Contractor — Immigration Enforcement Affects 29% of Contractors, AGC/NCCER Survey Finds (Sep 2026)
• HBI — Fall 2025 Construction Labor Market Report
• Roofing Contractor — 2026 State of the Roofing Industry Report (Jan 2026)
• NAHB — Builder Sentiment Falls on Rising Rates (Oct 19 2026)
• Freddie Mac — Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Oct 22 2026)
• Harvard JCHS — Remodeling Growth to Slow Sharply in Early 2027 (LIRA, Jul 2026)
• LexisNexis Risk Solutions — 2026 U.S. Home Trends Report (Jul 22 2026)
• Insurify — 2026 Home Insurance Price Projections (Mar 2026)
• MoneyGeek — Pennsylvania Home Insurance Cost (Aug 14 2026)
• HomeGuide — Roofing Labor Cost Per Square 2026
• Modernize — Pennsylvania Roof Replacement Cost Calculator (Aug 27 2026)
• Equity Roofs — Roof Cost in Central PA 2026 Homeowners Guide (May 29 2026)
• RoofVista — Pennsylvania Roof Replacement Cost 2026 (Mar 20 2026)

Last updated: October 2026. Update cadence: We update this report every 6 months. Next update: April 2027. Previous edition: Roofing Price Report, Nov 2025 – Apr 2026.